Market Outlook
September 02, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open flat with negative bias tracking SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(0.1)
(29)
28,423
Nifty
(0.1)
(12)
8,775
U.S. stocks closed mostly flat Thursday as investors digested a slew of economic data
ahead of Friday's key jobs report. Dow closed about 15 pts high, after briefly falling
Mid Cap
(0.4)
(50)
13,167
more than 100 pts. S&P 500 fell less than point, after being dragged by 1% fall in
Small Cap
(0.4)
(50)
12,599
financials. Utilities were the greatest laggards at the close. ISM manufacturing index
Bankex
0.1
21
22,678
for August came in at 49.4, weakest since January. Markit manufacturing PMI index,
meanwhile, came in at 52.0.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
U.K. stocks turned lower Thursday, with many shares falling victim to surge in pound
Dow Jones
0.1
18
18,419
after U.K. manufacturing data surprised investors with unexpectedly strong reading.
FTSE 100 fell 0.5%, relinquishing an earlier gain of 0.7% that was led by the basic
Nasdaq
0.3
14
5,227
materials and financial groups. Thursday’s loss marked the 3rd in row for the London
FTSE
(0.5)
(36)
6,746
benchmark. Leading blue-chips ended low, shares of Vodafone, fell 2.8%, Hikma
Nikkei
0.2
39
16,927
Pharma was down 2.5% and drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline, gave up 2.4%.
Hang Seng
0.8
185
23,162
Bulls took breather on Thursday as equity benchmarks closed rangebound session
Shanghai Com
(0.7)
(22)
3,063
marginally lower after rallying for previous 3 consecutive days. Sell-off in Telecom
stocks on Jio's tariff plans & profit booking in Reliance dampened market sentiment
but FMCG, metals, auto and select banks limited the downside. Subdued Q1 GDP
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
and July core industries data also weighed on the market.
Advances
1,052
555
Declines
1,706
1,071
News Analysis
Unchanged
166
64
Jio’s aggressive pricing could hurt competition
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Volumes (` Cr)
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
BSE
3,655
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
NSE
20,926
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Top Picks
FII
389
8,863
39,745
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
MFs
274
1,320
10,109
(`)
(`)
(%)
Amara Raja
Auto/Auto Ancillary Accumulate
970
1,076
11.0
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
784
1,000
27.5
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
HDFC Bank
Financials
Accumulate
1,280
1,350
5.4
Hcc
33
19.1
Bharat Electronics
Capital Goods
Buy
1,225
1,414
15.4
Iifl
299
7.2
Equitas Holdings
Financials
Buy
179
235
31.0
Pcjeweller
467
6.0
Navkar Corporation Others
Buy
195
265
35.7
Punjlloyd
24
4.8
More Top Picks on Pg3
Raymond
428
3.5
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Sep 02 US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
255.0
180.0
Idea
84
(10.5)
Sep 02 Euro Zone
Euro Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
0.3
--
Rcom
49
(8.8)
Sep 05 US
Unemployment rate
4.9
4.8
Sreinfra
77
(6.7)
Sep 06 Germany
PMI Services
53.3
--
Bhartiartl
311
(6.4)
Sep 07 UK
Industrial production (YoY)
1.6
--
6.(
Gvkpil
6
(6.3)
As on September 01, 2016
Market Outlook
September 02, 2016
News Analysis
Jio’s aggressive pricing could hurt competition
Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani has today revealed details of
Reliance Jio’s launch on the occasion of the company's 42nd AGM. Reliance is
planning a very aggressive launch of the Jio by resorting to heavy price cutting.
The company has already incurred a relatively high sum of `1,34,000cr towards
capex for the venture and the spending is expected to increase further. Such capex
spending is huge compared to what has been incurred by other telecom operators
such as Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular. Reliance‘s strategy is to grab significant
market share from competition, which should resultantly lead to other telecom
operators getting compelled to lower prices to defend their customer base and
overall market share.
Further our preliminary analysis suggests that subscribing to Reliance Jio’s plans
would result in 2x-4x savings for consumers. If the aggressively priced offerings of
Reliance Jio find favour among customers then the company would be able to
notch up significant market share from competitors. To add to the goodies, the
company is offering unlimited voice calling and data download to customers free
of cost from 5th September 2016 to 31 December 2016. In our view, this is an
attractive offering and might entice customers of competing telecom players to
switch to Reliance Jio. The competition is likely to face intense pressure on their
bottom-lines in the quarters to come, given the value proposition in the offerings of
Reliance Jio.
During 1QFY2017, telecom companies were able to deliver double digit top-line
growth although their performance faltered on the bottom-line front. Gauging
increased competition with Reliance Jio’s advent, we prefer to be cautious on the
sector.
Key takeaways from AGM
Reliance Jio price points starting from `19 for the occasional data user to a
monthly `149 plan for the light data user (0.3GB 4G data) and all the way
up to a monthly `4,999 plan for the heaviest data user (75GB 4G data).
No charges for voice calling (local and roaming).
Reliance Jio would provide data packs at 5x-10x lower price points than
other operators.
Jio's 4G network will cover 18,000 cities and towns and over 2 lakh
villages.
By March 2017, the company plans to cover 90% of India's population.
Reliance Jio will offer true 4G LTE smart phones starting from `2,999 and
Jio-Fi for `1,999 to enable all Indians to migrate to Jio's data strong
network.
Ambani unveiled a special students discount offer, under which any student
will be able to get 25% more data on Jio's main tariffs.
Reliance Jio’s full commercial launch would be on 31st December 2016.
Market Outlook
September 02, 2016
With the Jio app, the company is also offering access to more than 6,000
movies and 10mn songs at no cost.
We continue to maintain Neutral rating on the stock.
Economic and Political News
Urban unemployment climbs to 11.24% in August, rural 9.18%
GST bill can now go for Presidential assent: Jaitley
Cement firms to approach COMPAT against `6,700cr CCI order
Corporate News
ABB India opens solar inverter manufacturing factory
Infosys Finacle, Huawei create new financial cloud solution
NTPC unit issues non-payment notice to Delhi discoms
CESC begins power distribution in Rajasthan at Kota
Market Outlook
September 02, 2016
Top Picks
Large Cap
M
arket Cap
CM
P
T
arget
Upsid
e
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
16,564
970
1,076
11.0
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Uptick in defense capex by government, coupled with BELs
Bharat Electronics
29,395
1,225
1,414
15.4
strong market positioning, indicate good times ahead for BEL.
HCL Tech
1,10,653
784
1,000
27.5
Stock is trading at attractive valuations & factors all bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
3,24,126
1,280
1,350
5.4
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14% to
Infosys
2,38,342
1,038
1,370
32.0
be a US$20bn in FY2020.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
M
arket Cap
CM
P
T
arget
Upsid
e
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
4,776
501
527
5.2
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Strong loan growth backed by diversified loan portfolio and
Equitas Holdings
6,015
179
235
31.0
adequate CAR. ROE & ROA likely to remain decent as risk of
dilution remains low. Attractive valuations considering growth.
Expectations of above average monsoon augurs well for
Goodyear India
1,289
559
631
12.9
Goodyear India as it derives ~50% of its turnover from farm
tyre segment.
Commencement of new projects, downtrend in the interest rate
IL&FS Transport
2,364
72
93
29.4
cycle, to lead to stock re-rating
Speedier execution and speedier sales, strong revenue visibility
Mahindra Lifespace
1,773
432
522
20.8
in short-to-long run, attractive valuations
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD as
Navkar Corporation
2,785
195
265
35.7
well CFS augurs well for the company
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and favourable
Radico Khaitan
1,333
100
125
24.8
pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers provides
additional comfort
Market leadership in Hindi news genre and no. 2 viewership
TV Today Network
1,819
305
363
19.0
ranking in English news genre, exit from the radio business, and
anticipated growth in ad spends by corporates to benefit the stock.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 02, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.3
12.0
9.9
7.8
7.9
10.0
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.6
7.2
7.1
8.0
6.3
6.6
6.7
7.0
6.4
6.0
3.7
5.8
4.0
2.1
6.0
1.9
1.1
2.0
0.3
5.0
-
4.0
(2.0)
(0.9)
(1.3)
(1.6)
(4.0)
3.0
(3.4)
(6.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
7.0
6.1
54.0
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.4
5.6
5.5
6.0
5.3
5.0
4.8
52.0
5.0
4.4
3.7
4.0
50.0
3.0
48.0
2.0
46.0
1.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
5.0
7.00
0.0
6.50
(5.0)
6.00
(10.0)
5.50
(15.0)
5.00
(20.0)
4.50
(25.0)
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 02, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.7
6.0
5.3
5.2
4.0
3.5
4.0
3.1
2.2
1.4
2.0
1.2
0.6
-
(2.0)
(0.6)
(4.0)
(3.8)
(0.2)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2016 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
10.0
7.5
8.0
6.5
6.0
4.9
4.4
4.0
3.0
2.4
1.9
1.5
2.0
1.1
0.6
0.5
(3.8)
(1.8)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 02, 2016
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
58,236
3.7
15.0
22.0
Russia
Micex
1,977
3.4
4.6
16.4
India
Nifty
8,775
1.6
7.3
11.3
China
Shanghai Composite
3,063
3.0
4.8
3.4
South Africa
Top 40
46,169
0.5
(3.8)
4.1
Mexico
Mexbol
47,563
2.2
3.6
9.9
Indonesia
LQ45
916
(1.1)
10.9
32.4
Malaysia
KLCI
1,671
0.3
2.5
9.0
Thailand
SET 50
978
2.3
7.3
10.4
USA
Dow Jones
18,419
0.6
3.3
12.5
UK
FTSE
6,746
0.8
9.1
11.6
Japan
Nikkei
16,927
1.7
(0.2)
(12.9)
Germany
DAX
10,534
3.8
4.3
4.2
France
CAC
4,440
2.6
0.4
(3.4)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Stock Watch
September 02, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
226
-
4,389
1,937
2,164
13.3
14.3
9.0
11.0
25.1
20.5
4.4
3.8
18.4
19.8
2.3
2.0
United Phosphorus
Accumulate
627
684
26,880
15,176
17,604
18.5
18.5
37.4
44.6
16.8
14.1
3.3
2.7
21.4
21.2
1.9
1.6
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
84
111
23,848
22,407
26,022
10.6
10.6
5.2
6.4
16.1
13.1
3.6
3.1
23.6
24.7
1.2
1.0
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
2,997
-
86,710
25,093
27,891
19.5
19.2
143.9
162.5
20.8
18.4
5.8
5.0
30.3
29.4
3.2
2.8
Bharat Forge
Neutral
856
-
19,918
7,726
8,713
20.5
21.2
35.3
42.7
24.2
20.0
4.5
4.0
18.9
20.1
2.7
2.3
Eicher Motors
Neutral
22,774
-
61,858
16,583
20,447
17.5
18.0
598.0
745.2
38.1
30.6
13.0
9.9
41.2
38.3
3.6
2.9
Gabriel India
Neutral
119
-
1,711
1,544
1,715
9.0
9.3
5.4
6.3
22.1
18.9
4.2
3.7
18.9
19.5
1.0
0.9
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
3,547
-
70,827
31,253
35,198
15.3
15.0
172.3
192.1
20.6
18.5
7.5
6.5
38.9
37.0
2.1
1.8
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
212
-
1,690
1,486
1,620
9.8
9.9
15.0
17.2
14.1
12.3
3.1
2.6
21.8
21.3
1.3
1.2
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
475
-
746
1,302
1,432
11.6
11.9
43.7
53.0
10.9
9.0
1.5
1.4
13.8
14.2
0.7
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Neutral
1,452
-
90,176
46,534
53,077
11.6
11.7
67.3
78.1
21.6
18.6
3.5
3.1
15.4
15.8
1.9
1.6
Maruti
Neutral
5,058
-
152,800
69,186
82,217
14.7
14.4
198.5
241.4
25.5
21.0
5.0
4.0
20.2
20.0
1.9
1.5
Minda Industries
Neutral
1,387
-
2,200
2,728
3,042
9.0
9.1
68.2
86.2
20.3
16.1
4.6
3.7
23.8
24.3
0.8
0.7
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
321
-
42,427
45,896
53,687
7.8
8.3
13.0
16.1
24.6
19.9
7.9
6.3
34.7
35.4
1.0
0.8
Rane Brake Lining
Neutral
821
-
650
511
562
11.3
11.5
28.1
30.9
29.2
26.6
4.5
4.1
15.3
15.0
1.3
1.2
Setco Automotive
Neutral
44
-
585
741
837
13.0
13.0
15.2
17.0
2.9
2.6
0.5
0.4
15.8
16.3
1.2
1.1
Tata Motors
Neutral
544
-
156,963
300,209
338,549
8.9
8.4
42.7
54.3
12.7
10.0
2.0
1.7
15.6
17.2
0.6
0.5
TVS Motor
Neutral
328
-
15,559
13,390
15,948
6.9
7.1
12.8
16.5
25.7
19.8
6.4
5.1
26.3
27.2
1.2
1.0
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
970
1,076
16,564
5,717
6,733
18.7
18.9
38.4
48.9
25.3
19.8
6.3
5.1
25.3
24.8
2.6
2.2
Exide Industries
Neutral
184
-
15,678
7,439
8,307
15.0
15.0
8.1
9.3
22.8
19.8
3.2
2.9
14.3
16.7
1.7
1.5
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
186
-
9,458
12,877
14,504
14.3
13.9
21.4
23.0
8.7
8.1
1.4
1.2
16.4
15.2
0.9
0.8
Ceat
Buy
893
1,119
3,612
7,524
8,624
13.0
12.7
131.1
144.3
6.8
6.2
1.3
1.1
19.8
18.6
0.6
0.5
JK Tyres
Neutral
134
-
3,031
7,455
8,056
15.0
15.0
21.8
24.5
6.1
5.5
1.3
1.0
22.8
21.3
0.5
0.4
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
1,170
-
1,453
660
810
15.2
16.4
54.5
72.8
21.5
16.1
6.7
6.1
31.5
39.2
2.0
1.6
Subros
Neutral
105
-
629
1,488
1,681
11.7
11.9
6.4
7.2
16.4
14.6
1.7
1.6
10.8
11.4
0.6
0.5
Indag Rubber
Neutral
183
-
480
286
326
19.8
16.8
11.7
13.3
15.7
13.7
2.6
2.5
17.8
17.1
1.4
1.2
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
44
-
434
709
814
4.1
4.6
1.4
2.1
31.3
20.9
1.3
1.2
4.4
6.0
0.8
0.7
BEML
Accumulate
1,062
1,157
4,421
3,451
4,055
6.3
9.2
31.4
57.9
33.8
18.3
2.0
1.8
6.3
10.9
1.4
1.2
Bharat Electronics
Buy
1,225
1,414
29,395
8,137
9,169
16.8
17.2
58.7
62.5
20.9
19.6
3.2
2.9
44.6
46.3
2.6
2.3
Stock Watch
September 02, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Neutral
388
-
12,825
6,511
7,514
7.9
8.7
12.9
16.3
30.1
23.8
5.4
4.7
16.7
18.5
1.8
1.5
BGR Energy
Neutral
114
-
821
16,567
33,848
6.0
5.6
7.8
5.9
14.6
19.3
0.8
0.8
4.7
4.2
0.2
0.1
BHEL
Neutral
136
-
33,189
28,797
34,742
-
2.8
2.3
6.9
59.0
19.7
1.0
1.0
1.3
4.8
0.9
0.6
Blue Star
Accumulate
501
527
4,776
4,351
5,024
6.4
7.1
17.2
20.6
29.2
24.3
19.0
15.8
23.1
24.1
1.1
1.0
Crompton Greaves
Neutral
81
-
5,092
5,777
6,120
5.9
7.0
3.3
4.5
24.6
18.1
1.1
1.0
4.4
5.9
0.8
0.7
Greaves Cotton
Neutral
136
-
3,322
1,755
1,881
16.8
16.9
7.8
8.5
17.4
16.0
3.5
3.2
20.6
20.9
1.6
1.5
Inox Wind
Buy
186
286
4,130
5,605
6,267
15.7
16.4
24.8
30.0
7.5
6.2
2.1
1.5
25.9
24.4
0.8
0.6
KEC International
Neutral
136
-
3,491
9,294
10,186
7.9
8.1
9.9
11.9
13.7
11.4
2.0
1.8
15.6
16.3
0.6
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
832
-
9,914
5,421
5,940
7.3
7.3
25.7
30.2
32.4
27.6
3.9
3.6
12.2
13.1
1.7
1.6
VATech Wabag
Buy
565
681
3,079
3,136
3,845
8.9
9.1
26.0
35.9
21.7
15.7
2.7
2.3
13.4
15.9
0.9
0.7
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,688
-
31,696
11,225
13,172
13.2
16.9
44.5
75.5
37.9
22.4
3.6
3.3
11.2
14.2
2.8
2.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
278
-
55,102
9,350
10,979
18.2
22.5
5.8
9.5
47.8
29.2
4.0
3.6
10.2
12.5
5.8
5.0
India Cements
Neutral
151
-
4,652
4,364
4,997
18.5
19.2
7.9
11.3
19.2
13.4
1.4
1.3
8.0
8.5
1.8
1.6
JK Cement
Neutral
791
-
5,530
4,398
5,173
15.5
17.5
31.2
55.5
25.3
14.3
3.0
2.6
12.0
15.5
1.8
1.5
J K Lakshmi Cement
Neutral
457
-
5,381
2,913
3,412
14.5
19.5
7.5
22.5
61.0
20.3
3.8
3.2
12.5
18.0
2.4
2.0
Orient Cement
Neutral
196
-
4,012
2,114
2,558
18.5
20.5
8.1
11.3
24.2
17.3
3.6
3.0
9.0
14.0
2.4
1.9
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
4,056
-
111,320
25,768
30,385
21.0
23.5
111.0
160.0
36.5
25.4
4.7
4.1
13.5
15.8
4.2
3.5
Construction
ITNL
Buy
72
93
2,364
8,946
10,017
31.0
31.6
8.1
9.1
8.9
7.9
0.3
0.3
4.2
5.0
3.6
3.3
KNR Constructions
Accumulate
703
802
1,977
1,385
1,673
14.7
14.0
41.2
48.5
17.1
14.5
3.2
2.8
14.9
15.2
1.5
1.2
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,508
1,700
140,514
67,665
77,249
10.7
11.5
57.3
71.2
26.3
21.2
2.4
2.3
12.6
14.3
2.2
1.9
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
182
-
8,791
705
788
52.2
51.7
5.0
5.6
36.4
32.5
3.6
3.2
11.2
11.2
11.9
10.1
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
86
-
4,767
8,842
9,775
9.1
8.8
5.3
6.4
16.2
13.4
1.3
1.2
8.2
9.1
0.7
0.6
PNC Infratech
Accumulate
120
129
3,066
2,350
2,904
13.4
13.7
48.0
42.0
2.5
2.9
0.5
0.4
16.8
13.2
1.4
1.2
Simplex Infra
Neutral
307
-
1,516
6,829
7,954
10.5
10.5
31.4
37.4
9.8
8.2
1.0
0.9
9.9
13.4
0.6
0.5
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
481
-
708
1,801
2,219
12.7
14.6
72.1
113.9
6.7
4.2
1.2
1.0
16.8
11.9
0.4
0.3
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
292
-
5,013
3,598
4,140
10.3
10.6
9.0
11.9
32.5
24.6
3.4
3.0
9.9
11.9
1.7
1.4
NBCC
Neutral
242
-
14,505
7,428
9,549
7.9
8.6
8.2
11.0
29.5
22.0
1.5
1.2
28.2
28.7
1.7
1.2
MEP Infra
Neutral
43
-
697
1,877
1,943
30.6
29.8
3.0
4.2
14.3
10.2
6.9
4.7
0.6
0.6
1.8
1.6
SIPL
Neutral
111
-
3,926
1,036
1,252
65.5
66.2
(8.4)
(5.6)
4.2
4.8
(22.8)
(15.9)
11.5
9.6
Stock Watch
September 02, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Construction
Engineers India
Neutral
270
-
9,084
1,725
1,935
16.0
19.1
11.4
13.9
23.7
19.4
3.3
3.2
13.4
15.3
4.1
3.7
Financials
Axis Bank
Neutral
596
-
142,299
58,081
66,459
3.5
3.5
32.4
44.6
18.4
13.4
2.4
2.1
13.6
16.5
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
161
-
37,143
19,980
23,178
1.8
1.8
11.5
17.3
14.0
9.3
1.6
1.3
8.3
10.1
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
277
-
15,065
15,225
16,836
1.8
1.8
14.5
28.0
19.1
9.9
1.3
1.1
5.8
8.5
-
-
Dewan Housing Finance Neutral
286
-
8,331
2,225
2,688
2.9
2.9
29.7
34.6
9.6
8.3
1.6
1.3
16.1
16.8
-
-
Equitas Holdings
Buy
179
235
6,015
939
1,281
11.7
11.5
5.8
8.2
30.9
21.9
2.7
2.4
10.9
11.5
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
70
-
11,976
9,353
10,623
2.9
2.9
4.4
5.8
15.8
12.0
1.5
1.3
9.5
11.0
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,422
-
224,797
11,475
13,450
3.4
3.4
45.3
52.5
31.4
27.1
6.1
5.4
20.2
20.5
-
-
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
1,280
1,350
324,126
46,097
55,433
4.5
4.5
58.4
68.0
21.9
18.8
3.8
3.2
18.8
18.6
-
-
ICICI Bank
Neutral
261
-
151,763
39,029
45,903
3.3
3.3
16.7
16.3
15.6
16.0
1.9
1.8
10.1
12.4
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Neutral
572
-
28,872
3,712
4,293
2.6
2.5
39.0
46.0
14.7
12.4
2.8
2.4
19.9
20.1
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
126
-
24,692
23,532
23,595
2.3
2.4
6.8
12.6
18.5
10.0
2.9
2.0
3.3
6.5
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
22
-
3,004
6,435
7,578
2.5
2.5
2.7
3.1
8.2
7.2
1.1
0.9
10.1
11.2
-
-
St Bk of India
Neutral
252
-
195,428
88,650
98,335
2.6
2.6
13.5
18.8
18.7
13.4
1.8
1.6
7.0
8.5
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
138
-
9,459
13,450
14,925
2.3
2.3
25.5
34.5
5.4
4.0
0.8
0.7
7.5
10.2
-
-
Yes Bank
Neutral
1,366
-
57,494
8,978
11,281
3.3
3.4
74.0
90.0
18.5
15.2
3.5
3.0
17.0
17.2
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
1,155
-
110,821
17,128
18,978
16.8
16.4
19.1
20.7
60.5
55.8
21.0
19.9
34.8
35.5
6.3
5.7
Britannia
Neutral
3,412
-
40,933
9,795
11,040
14.6
14.9
80.3
94.0
42.5
36.3
17.5
13.5
41.2
-
4.1
3.6
Colgate
Neutral
951
-
25,858
4,605
5,149
23.4
23.4
23.8
26.9
40.0
35.3
22.1
17.3
64.8
66.8
5.5
4.9
Dabur India
Neutral
294
-
51,701
8,315
9,405
19.8
20.7
8.1
9.2
36.3
32.0
10.1
8.4
31.6
31.0
5.9
5.2
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,242
-
26,251
4,350
4,823
21.2
21.4
179.2
196.5
34.8
31.8
9.3
7.8
27.1
26.8
5.5
4.8
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,551
-
52,830
10,235
11,428
18.4
18.6
41.1
44.2
37.8
35.1
8.4
7.1
24.9
24.8
5.3
4.7
HUL
Neutral
927
-
200,539
35,252
38,495
17.6
17.4
20.4
21.9
45.4
42.3
37.3
32.7
82.2
77.3
5.5
5.0
ITC
Accumulate
261
283
314,565
40,059
44,439
39.0
39.2
9.1
10.1
28.7
25.8
7.8
6.9
27.2
26.5
7.2
6.5
Marico
Neutral
294
-
37,867
6,430
7,349
18.8
19.5
6.4
7.7
45.9
38.1
13.8
11.7
33.2
32.5
5.6
4.8
Nestle*
Neutral
6,504
-
62,708
10,073
11,807
20.7
21.5
124.8
154.2
52.1
42.2
21.4
19.2
34.8
36.7
6.2
5.3
Tata Global
Neutral
141
-
8,905
8,675
9,088
9.8
9.8
7.4
8.2
19.1
17.2
2.2
2.1
7.9
8.1
0.9
0.9
Procter & Gamble
Accumulate
6,550
7,369
21,262
2,939
3,342
23.2
23.0
146.2
163.7
44.8
40.0
100.3
96.2
25.3
23.5
6.8
5.9
Hygiene
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
784
1,000
110,653
49,242
57,168
20.5
20.5
55.7
64.1
14.1
12.2
2.9
2.2
20.3
17.9
2.1
1.7
Stock Watch
September 02, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
IT
Infosys
Buy
1,038
1,370
238,343
69,934
79,025
27.5
27.5
64.8
72.0
16.0
14.4
3.5
3.2
22.0
22.3
2.9
2.5
TCS
Buy
2,508
3,004
494,105
121,684
136,286
27.3
27.3
135.0
150.1
18.6
16.7
6.2
5.7
33.2
33.9
3.9
3.4
Tech Mahindra
Buy
469
700
45,550
30,347
33,685
17.0
17.0
37.5
41.3
12.5
11.4
2.7
2.4
21.8
20.7
1.2
1.0
Wipro
Buy
484
680
119,508
51,631
55,822
21.7
17.9
35.9
36.9
13.5
13.1
2.8
2.6
19.0
18.1
2.0
1.8
Media
D B Corp
Neutral
411
-
7,551
2,297
2,590
27.4
28.2
21.0
23.4
19.6
17.6
4.6
4.0
23.7
23.1
3.1
2.7
HT Media
Neutral
84
-
1,948
2,693
2,991
12.6
12.9
7.9
9.0
10.6
9.3
0.9
0.8
7.8
8.3
0.3
0.2
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
198
205
6,463
2,355
2,635
28.0
28.0
9.9
10.8
20.0
18.3
4.0
3.4
21.7
21.7
2.6
2.3
Sun TV Network
Neutral
466
-
18,380
2,850
3,265
70.1
71.0
26.2
30.4
17.8
15.3
4.6
4.0
24.3
25.6
6.2
5.2
Hindustan Media
Neutral
283
-
2,073
1,016
1,138
24.3
25.2
27.3
30.1
10.4
9.4
2.0
1.8
16.2
15.8
1.4
1.2
Ventures
TV Today Network
Buy
305
363
1,819
637
743
27.5
27.5
18.4
21.4
16.6
14.3
2.9
2.5
17.4
17.2
2.5
2.0
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Neutral
338
-
213,525
84,638
94,297
21.4
22.3
24.5
27.1
13.8
12.5
5.7
5.5
42.6
46.0
2.0
1.8
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
225
-
95,260
14,252
18,465
55.9
48.3
15.8
21.5
14.3
10.5
2.3
2.0
17.0
20.7
6.8
5.2
Hindalco
Neutral
158
-
32,555
107,899
112,095
7.4
8.2
9.2
13.0
17.1
12.1
0.8
0.8
4.8
6.6
0.8
0.8
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,771
-
42,819
53,201
58,779
16.1
16.2
130.6
153.7
13.6
11.5
1.8
1.6
14.0
14.4
1.6
1.4
NMDC
Neutral
107
-
42,264
6,643
7,284
44.4
47.7
7.1
7.7
15.0
13.8
1.3
1.3
8.8
9.2
4.2
3.8
SAIL
Neutral
48
-
19,824
47,528
53,738
(0.7)
2.1
(1.9)
2.6
18.5
0.5
0.5
(1.6)
3.9
1.3
1.2
Vedanta
Neutral
170
-
50,459
71,744
81,944
19.2
21.7
13.4
20.1
12.7
8.5
1.1
1.0
8.4
11.3
1.1
0.8
Tata Steel
Neutral
374
-
36,304
121,374
121,856
7.2
8.4
18.6
34.3
20.1
10.9
1.3
1.2
6.1
10.1
0.9
0.9
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
200
-
37,572
9,127
10,632
4.3
20.6
8.8
11.7
22.8
17.1
0.7
0.7
3.3
4.2
5.7
4.7
GAIL
Neutral
392
-
49,724
56,220
65,198
9.3
10.1
27.1
33.3
14.5
11.8
1.3
1.2
9.3
10.7
1.1
0.9
ONGC
Neutral
237
-
202,380
137,222
152,563
15.0
21.8
19.5
24.1
12.1
9.8
1.0
1.0
8.5
10.1
1.8
1.6
Indian Oil Corp
Neutral
576
-
139,765
373,359
428,656
5.9
5.5
54.0
59.3
10.7
9.7
1.7
1.5
16.0
15.6
0.5
0.5
Reliance Industries
Neutral
1,029
-
333,696
301,963
358,039
12.1
12.6
87.7
101.7
11.7
10.1
1.2
1.1
10.7
11.3
1.6
1.3
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
628
-
11,847
3,483
4,083
20.2
21.4
24.3
30.4
25.9
20.7
5.9
4.7
25.5
25.3
3.4
2.8
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
774
877
45,304
15,720
18,078
23.7
23.7
41.4
47.3
18.7
16.4
4.9
3.8
29.6
26.1
3.2
2.8
Aventis*
Neutral
4,502
-
10,368
2,357
2,692
17.3
17.3
153.5
169.2
29.3
26.6
5.0
4.0
25.8
28.4
3.9
3.2
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
375
-
38,436
11,126
13,148
22.0
22.0
17.1
20.0
22.0
18.8
5.6
4.5
28.8
26.6
3.6
2.9
Cipla
Sell
578
490
46,410
15,378
18,089
17.4
18.4
21.6
27.2
26.7
21.2
3.5
3.0
13.7
15.2
3.2
2.7
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
3,098
-
52,835
16,043
18,119
23.1
24.7
126.0
157.8
24.6
19.6
3.6
3.1
15.7
17.1
3.2
2.8
Stock Watch
September 02, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Pharmaceuticals
Dishman Pharma
Sell
173
45
2,797
1,718
1,890
22.7
22.8
9.5
11.3
18.2
15.3
1.8
1.6
10.1
10.9
2.2
1.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,994
-
25,356
3,528
3,811
16.6
18.8
51.8
59.4
57.8
50.4
15.5
15.4
26.3
30.6
7.0
6.5
Indoco Remedies
Sell
316
225
2,912
1,112
1,289
18.2
18.2
13.2
15.6
23.9
20.3
4.3
3.6
19.2
19.2
2.8
2.4
Ipca labs
Accumulate
539
613
6,797
3,303
3,799
15.3
15.3
17.3
19.7
31.1
27.4
2.7
2.5
9.1
9.4
2.2
1.9
Lupin
Buy
1,502
1,809
67,698
15,912
18,644
26.4
26.7
58.1
69.3
25.9
21.7
5.0
4.1
21.4
20.9
4.4
3.6
Sun Pharma
Buy
771
944
185,448
31,129
35,258
30.0
30.9
28.0
32.8
27.5
23.5
4.2
3.5
18.7
18.9
5.6
4.7
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
78
-
21,137
36,916
39,557
17.4
27.1
5.1
6.3
15.3
12.4
1.4
1.2
9.0
10.3
1.6
1.4
NTPC
Neutral
159
-
130,814
86,605
95,545
17.5
20.8
11.8
13.4
13.4
11.8
1.4
1.3
10.5
11.1
2.9
2.9
Power Grid
Neutral
184
-
96,287
25,763
29,762
74.3
73.1
14.8
17.3
12.4
10.6
1.9
1.7
16.9
17.5
8.0
7.6
Real Estate
Prestige Estate
Buy
187
210
7,029
4,707
5,105
25.2
26.0
10.3
13.0
18.2
14.4
1.5
1.4
10.3
10.2
2.6
2.3
MLIFE
Buy
432
522
1,773
1,152
1,300
22.7
24.6
29.9
35.8
14.5
12.1
1.1
1.0
7.6
8.6
2.3
1.9
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
311
-
124,199
105,086
114,808
34.5
34.7
12.2
16.4
25.5
19.0
1.7
1.6
6.8
8.4
2.2
1.9
Idea Cellular
Neutral
84
-
30,139
40,133
43,731
37.2
37.1
6.4
6.5
13.1
12.9
1.1
1.0
8.2
7.6
1.9
1.6
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,626
-
9,830
3,153
3,583
14.1
14.4
152.2
182.7
30.4
25.3
149.2
127.4
25.6
26.1
2.9
2.5
Bajaj Electricals
Neutral
266
-
2,689
5,099
5,805
5.7
5.9
11.4
14.6
23.4
18.3
3.1
2.8
13.4
15.1
0.5
0.5
Finolex Cables
Neutral
438
-
6,696
2,883
3,115
12.0
12.1
14.2
18.6
30.8
23.5
16.4
14.3
15.8
14.6
2.0
1.8
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
559
631
1,289
1,598
1,704
10.4
10.2
49.4
52.6
11.3
10.6
52.2
45.8
18.2
17.0
0.5
64.3
Hitachi
Neutral
1,503
-
4,087
2,081
2,433
8.8
8.9
33.4
39.9
45.0
37.7
36.3
30.3
22.1
21.4
2.0
1.7
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
312
-
5,659
1,440
2,052
11.5
13.0
8.5
10.0
36.8
31.2
8.9
8.2
18.6
19.3
4.2
2.9
Page Industries
Neutral
15,104
-
16,847
2,450
3,124
20.1
17.6
299.0
310.0
50.5
48.7
336.4
256.8
47.1
87.5
6.8
5.4
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
439
-
5,265
2,085
2,469
9.2
8.2
7.6
8.0
58.0
55.2
22.5
19.2
17.9
18.8
2.7
2.3
Siyaram Silk Mills
Neutral
1,319
-
1,236
1,799
2,040
11.6
11.7
104.9
122.4
12.6
10.8
2.1
1.8
16.4
16.4
0.9
0.8
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
573
-
1,008
1,440
1,537
9.2
9.0
40.6
42.6
14.1
13.5
36.0
32.8
12.3
11.6
0.7
0.6
TVS Srichakra
Accumulate
2,616
2,932
2,003
2,304
2,614
13.7
13.8
231.1
266.6
11.3
9.8
293.9
231.4
33.9
29.3
0.9
0.7
HSIL
Neutral
349
-
2,522
2,384
2,515
15.8
16.3
15.3
19.4
22.8
18.0
22.7
19.5
7.8
9.3
1.2
1.1
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
285
-
4,122
2,554
2,800
9.9
10.0
10.5
12.1
27.1
23.6
11.4
10.7
10.7
11.7
1.2
1.1
Ltd
M M Forgings
Neutral
430
-
519
546
608
20.4
20.7
41.3
48.7
10.4
8.8
58.9
52.1
16.6
17.0
0.8
0.7
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
227
-
1,623
1,353
1,471
12.3
12.4
14.5
16.3
15.7
13.9
21.6
19.5
14.5
14.6
1.1
115.4
Competent Automobiles Neutral
177
-
109
1,137
1,256
3.1
2.7
28.0
23.6
6.3
7.5
34.1
30.8
14.3
11.5
0.1
0.1
Stock Watch
September 02, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
zOthers
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,246
-
1,859
1,995
2,165
10.7
10.4
69.8
80.6
17.8
15.5
71.2
61.8
16.6
16.5
0.9
0.8
Visaka Industries
Neutral
187
-
297
1,051
1,138
10.3
10.4
21.0
23.1
8.9
8.1
24.0
22.4
9.0
9.2
0.5
0.5
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
192
-
1,470
2,671
2,911
8.5
8.8
13.9
15.7
13.9
12.3
1.9
1.7
13.7
13.8
0.6
0.6
India
Elecon Engineering
Accumulate
57
63
621
1,482
1,660
13.7
14.5
3.9
5.8
14.6
9.8
3.4
3.2
7.8
10.9
0.7
0.7
Surya Roshni
Accumulate
191
201
837
3,342
3,625
7.8
7.5
17.3
19.8
11.1
9.7
21.0
16.8
10.5
10.8
0.5
0.4
MT Educare
Neutral
135
-
536
366
417
17.7
18.2
9.4
10.8
14.4
12.5
3.2
2.8
22.2
22.3
1.4
1.2
Radico Khaitan
Buy
100
125
1,333
1,659
1,802
13.0
13.2
6.3
7.4
15.8
13.6
1.4
1.3
8.6
9.3
1.3
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Accumulate
475
524
1,039
873
938
12.9
13.1
30.9
34.9
15.4
13.6
2.4
2.1
15.7
15.2
1.1
1.0
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
410
-
2,318
287
355
38.0
40.0
11.3
14.2
36.3
28.9
5.2
4.6
21.4
23.9
7.7
6.3
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
281
-
415
382
420
9.3
9.5
13.5
15.7
20.8
17.9
3.6
3.1
17.1
17.3
1.1
1.0
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
159
-
636
287
384
20.5
20.5
7.6
10.7
20.9
14.8
4.4
3.5
20.7
23.5
2.2
1.7
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
877
-
31,609
21,122
26,005
14.5
27.6
110.7
132.1
7.9
6.6
47.4
33.9
168.5
201.1
1.5
1.2
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
245
-
5,051
2,964
3,260
20.5
21.2
4.7
8.0
-
30.6
2.8
2.6
5.5
8.5
2.1
1.9
Ltd
Navneet Education
Neutral
104
-
2,474
1,062
1,147
24.0
24.0
6.1
6.6
17.1
15.7
3.5
3.1
20.6
19.8
2.4
2.2
Navkar Corporation
Buy
195
265
2,785
408
612
42.9
42.3
6.8
11.5
28.8
17.0
2.0
1.8
6.9
10.5
7.8
5.2
UFO Moviez
Neutral
477
-
1,316
619
685
33.2
33.4
30.0
34.9
15.9
13.7
2.2
1.9
13.8
13.9
1.8
1.5
VRL Logistics
Neutral
291
-
2,654
1,902
2,119
16.7
16.6
14.6
16.8
20.0
17.3
4.4
3.8
21.9
22.2
1.5
1.3
Team Lease Serv.
Neutral
1,123
-
1,921
3,229
4,001
1.5
1.8
22.8
32.8
49.3
34.2
5.3
4.6
10.7
13.4
0.5
0.4
S H Kelkar & Co.
Neutral
344
-
4,971
1,036
1,160
15.1
15.0
6.1
7.2
56.3
47.9
6.0
5.5
10.7
11.5
4.6
4.0
Quick Heal
Neutral
238
-
1,667
408
495
27.3
27.0
7.7
8.8
30.8
27.1
2.9
2.9
9.3
10.6
3.3
2.7
Narayana Hrudaya
Neutral
309
-
6,315
1,873
2,166
11.5
11.7
2.6
4.0
116.8
77.9
7.2
6.5
6.1
8.3
3.5
3.0
Manpasand Bever.
Neutral
726
-
3,636
836
1,087
19.6
19.4
16.9
23.8
43.0
30.5
5.2
4.5
12.0
14.8
4.2
3.2
Parag Milk Foods
Neutral
339
-
2,852
1,919
2,231
9.3
9.6
9.5
12.9
35.9
26.2
5.6
4.6
15.5
17.5
1.6
1.3
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on September 01, 2016
Market Outlook
September 02, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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